Climate Hazard & Social Vulnerability Study

What is climate risk?

Climate risk is how much danger or harm something or someone might face because of climate change. It is made up of three important parts:

1. Hazard: This means the climate-related events that could cause harm, like storms, floods, droughts, or heatwaves. These are the events that can happen because of changing weather patterns.

2. Exposure: This refers to whether people, infrastructure, animals, or the environment are in places where these dangerous climate events can happen. For example, if you live near the coast, you might be exposed to floods or rising sea levels.

3. Vulnerability: This is about how likely it is that people, infrastructure, animals, or the environment will be harmed when those dangerous events happen. Some places or people are more vulnerable because they have fewer resources to protect themselves, like homes and structures that can withstand floods or infrastructure systems that provide clean water during a drought.

Climate risk is the combination of these three things: the chance of a dangerous climate event happening (hazard), whether you're in the way of it (exposure), and how easily you can be harmed by it (vulnerability). By understanding these three parts, we can better prepare and protect ourselves from climate change.

What climate hazards are more likely to affect Lakewood and how?

Lakewood will be most affected by extreme heat, extreme cold, hailstorms, flooding, wildfires and drought. It is likely that we will see an increase in the risk of having adverse consequences that endanger people, structures, economic activities and natural areas, as a result of these climate-related events.

Impacts for some hazards can be very localized, such as flooding, extreme heat and wildfire. Identifying priority risk areas in relation to these hazards is key to effective adaptation action.

Flooding risks could affect property owners, tenants, pedestrians, as well as access to services, including transportation. Much of the flood risk is already known, especially in areas like northeast Lakewood, where major transportation corridors face heightened risk.

Heat risks include potential health impacts due to limited access to cooling, which can result from energy disruptions or a reluctance or inability to use air conditioning because of energy costs. Those with underlying medical conditions are particularly vulnerable.

Wildfire risks involve damage or total loss of homes, particularly in areas like Bear Creek or Green Mountain near the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI), power outages from utility shutdowns, and health risks from smoke exposure for vulnerable populations.

Drought risks include reduced water availability for agriculture, human consumption, and other activities, which can be exacerbated by prolonged dry conditions.

Hail and extreme cold pose risks across wider areas. These include health concerns for outdoor workers, residents who are unhoused, pedestrians, and cyclists, as well as potential damage to properties, such as farm equipment, facilities, and homes without hail-resistant roofing.

Our community can work together to build a more resilient city. Resiliency is the capacity of a system to cope with change. Resilience may involve responding to hazardous events or proactively reorganizing systems in ways that allow them to maintain their essential function and structure. For instance, planting street trees and installing green roofs can increase the resilience of a building by helping mitigate extreme heat. These and other potential climate actions are being identified through this study.

Help us understand how climate risks affect you by completing the Climate Action Questionnaire, and you will be entered into the drawing for a $50 grocery gift card. Don't miss this opportunity to share your opinion and make a difference in Lakewood!

What is the “Climate Hazard & Social Vulnerability Study”?

• This is a Lakewood-specific assessment and analysis to improve our understanding of the anticipated impacts of climate change and how those will affect our city and our capacity to cope with those anticipated impacts.

What is the purpose of this project?

• The 2021 Jefferson County Hazard Mitigation Plan (HMP) identified areas with high social vulnerability concentrated in the northeast part of Lakewood. To find out why, an implementation strategy was included in the HMP to further explore those social vulnerabilities and how people are being affected by hazards in those areas. This analysis will also model changing climate conditions to find out how the hazards we already experience could be impacted in the future.

How will the results of the study be used?

• The study results will be combined into a final Climate Hazard & Social Vulnerability Report, along with a preliminary overview of mitigation and adaptation strategies that could make the community more resilient. The report will help to inform and prioritize city policy related to hazard mitigation and identify additional areas of study for further exploration. It will inform current and upcoming planning efforts such as the Comprehensive Plan and the next Hazard Mitigation Plan update.

What climate hazards are most likely to affect Lakewood?

• In the short-term (until 2040), Lakewood will be most affected by:
  1. Hailstorms
  2. Extreme Heat
  3. Extreme Cold
• Additional threats are expected to emerge with higher frequency or intensity in the mid-long term (2041-2100):
  1. Flooding
  2. Wildfire
  3. Drought

What factors result in a higher or lower climate risk?

• Climate risk results from the interaction of hazard, vulnerability and exposure. It is the combination of having a climate event that can cause damage (hazard), how likely a person, community or organization is to experience that hazard (exposure), and how well-equipped they are to withstand a climate event (vulnerability).
• Not all locations or assets will experience hazards in the same way or to the same extent.

What do the climate risks mean for Lakewood?

• It means that we can see an increase in the risk of having adverse consequences that endanger people, structures, economic activities and natural areas as a result of climate-related events. Some potential examples:
  1. Increase in mortality due to heat waves.
  2. Decrease in water availability for agriculture, human consumption and other activities, due to a drought.
  3. More frequent power outages and disrupted transportation networks and supply chain due to storm or flood events.

What can we do to reduce climate risks?

• Our community can work together to build a more resilient city. Resilience is the capacity of a system to cope with change. Resilience may involve responding to hazardous events or proactively reorganizing systems in ways that allow them to maintain their essential function, identity, and structure. For instance, planting trees along streets and installing green roofs can increase the resilience of a building by helping mitigate extreme heat.

The Climate Hazard & Social Vulnerability Study is a Lakewood-specific assessment and analysis to improve our understanding about the anticipated impacts of climate change and how those will affect our city and our capacity to cope with those anticipated impacts.

The first phase of the study will focus on climate risks related to known hazards, such as drought, extreme temperatures, floods, hailstorms, and wildfires. The analysis will include the city’s greenhouse gas inventories, modeling impacts based on likely emissions scenarios, and the identification and evaluation of climate risks, particularly in socially vulnerable areas of Lakewood.

The second phase of the study will focus on social vulnerability, including the collection of demographic data and community engagement focused on socially vulnerable groups and neighborhoods in order to better understand the current and anticipated climate risks that they face. Often, the climate impacts fall disproportionately on the most underserved or marginalized people in a community. The adverse effects of climate change intersect with other social vulnerabilities such as income, age, and health, leaving those with the highest social vulnerability most in danger of short-term and long-lasting impacts. It is important that the potential dangers of climate change and its impacts are fully understood.

The data collected in both phases will be analyzed and combined into a unified and cohesive Climate Hazard & Social Vulnerability Report by the end of 2024. In addition to identifying risks and vulnerabilities, this report will include a preliminary overview of potential strategies to mitigate hazards in Lakewood, providing guidance in effective and equitable hazard-mitigation projects. The report will help to inform and prioritize Lakewood's policy related to hazard mitigation and to identify additional areas of study for further exploration. The results will inform climate and sustainability reporting; supplement the city’s current Comprehensive Plan update; and guide future sustainability, climate action, and strategic planning efforts, such as the next Jefferson County Hazard Mitigation Plan (planned for 2025-2026).